Welcome to Episode 21 of the Bet With the Best Podcast. In this special episode of the podcast, sponsored by AmWager, we are going vary from our normal format to focus on two main themes. 1) Developing a more systematic approach to handicapping 2) Using a "Fair Odds Line" to help translate your handicapping opinion into good bets. Joining me this week will be CDI racing analyst Kevin Kilroy to provide some examples using some races from this Saturday’s card at the Fair Grounds.
Highlights/timestamp for Bet With the Best Podcast Episode 21 "Using a Fair Odds Line" with Kevin Kilroy Sponsored by AmWager:
3 min - Systematic approach to Handicapping
5 - Golden Rule
7 - Kevin's systematic approach
14 - Fair Odds line
26 - Example 1, Sat 1/6/24, FG 9th
43 - FG 9th Fair Odds Line
50 - Using Will Pays to estimate off odds
59 - Race Selection
1:02 - Example 2, Sat 1/6/2024, FG 10th
1:18 - FG 10th Fair Odds Line
1:32 - Pick-5
1:45 Summary
Kevin's Fair odds lines:
FG 9th:
| # | Horse | ML Odds | Fair Odds |
| 1 | Goin' Good | 5 | 8.8 |
| 2 | Brandon'smylawyer | 6 | 13.8 |
| 3 | Carimba | 3 | 3.9 |
| 4 | Stella Noir | 15 | 58.0 |
| 5 | Oeuvre | 3.5 | 2.0 |
| 6 | Sweet Temperament | 15 | 58.0 |
| 7 | Redifined | 5 | 28.5 |
| 8 | Poppy Flower | 4.5 | 3.9 |
| 9 | Breeze Easy (GB) | 20 | 58.0 |
FG 10th:
| # | Horse | ML Odds | Fair Odds |
| 1 | Tsuris | 15 | 21.5 |
| 2 | Arctic Rose | 4 | 6.5 |
| 3 | Wise Guy | 4.5 | 6.5 |
| 4 | Bayou Sarge | 20 | 21.5 |
| 5 | Gallant Star | 5 | 6.5 |
| 6 | Steal It Back | 15 | 14.0 |
| 7 | Imindycatbirdseat | 15 | 14.0 |
| 8 | Zong Tough | 12 | 89.0 |
| 9 | War Count | 3.5 | 3.5 |
| 10 | Juju Nineteen | 20 | 89.0 |
| 11 | J B Gray | 20 | 14.0 |
| 12 | Guitartuition Plzz | 8 | 14.0 |